The Congressional Alpha Playbook
Mathematically validated copy-trade strategies derived from 11,820 congressional buy disclosures and 12,767 sells, priced via Yahoo Finance, alpha-tested against SPY. Updated 2026-04-16.
The 5 Strongest Signals (ranked by 30d Sharpe)
Out of 11,820 buy trades analysed, the baseline 'follow everything' strategy delivers 0.00% alpha. The signal lives in the filtered subsets below.
民主党大额卖出 → 做空
当民主党国会议员申报金额 ≥ $50,000 的卖出时，该股票在接下来 30–90 天内系统性跑输 SPY。整个数据集中原始 Sharpe 最高的信号。
民主党申报卖出 · 中位金额 ≥ $50kPelosi 以平均 $6.5M 的规模申报 AAPL 卖出，就是教科书级的触发示例。
委员会 $150k+ 高信念买入
标记为与议员所在委员会管辖范围重叠的买入，单笔 $150,000 及以上。单笔交易 alpha 最高——但每年仅约 20 笔合格交易。
委员会标记的买入 · 中位金额 ≥ $150kMcCormick（参议院银行委员会）以 $175k × 5 笔买入 Goldman Sachs，是该信号的原型。
Unlock the full Congressional Playbook
30+ ranked signals, named individuals, sector strategy and back-tested templates.
Free account · No credit card · Built from 25,000+ STOCK Act disclosures
The Critical Party Asymmetry
The single most surprising finding in the data: Democratic and Republican signals are not symmetrical. Republicans don't sell on information.
Hypothesis: Democratic sells in size tend to anticipate regulatory or policy headwinds the seller has insight into. Republican sells in size tend to be wealth-management (diversification, lifestyle) rather than informational — and so should not be shorted.
Politicians Worth Following
Five named individuals with statistically validated alpha or signature trading patterns.
See the politicians worth following
We name the 5 individuals with statistically validated alpha (Sharpe up to 2.01).
Free account · No credit card · Built from 25,000+ STOCK Act disclosures
Sector Strategy: Chase, Neutral, Fade
Some sectors have persistent positive alpha when politicians buy them. Others have persistent negative alpha — meaning a politician buy is a contrarian sell signal.
| Sector | α (30d) | α (90d) | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|
| 金融服务 | +0.68% | +0.47% | Chase |
| 工业 | +0.58% | +1.58% | Chase |
| 可选消费 | +0.31% | -1.17% | Neutral |
| 科技 | +0.13% | +0.27% | Neutral |
Unlock the full Congressional Playbook
30+ ranked signals, named individuals, sector strategy and back-tested templates.
Free account · No credit card · Built from 25,000+ STOCK Act disclosures
Three Trade-Ready Templates
Concrete entry, hold, and stop parameters for the highest-conviction signals.
策略 A — 民主党高信念多头
核心、可规模化的多头信号。每年约 15 笔合格交易。
策略 B — 民主党卖出做空
数据集中 Sharpe 最高的策略。在 90 天仍然有效。
策略 C — 参议院金融建仓
信息优势最强、频率最低的策略。McCormick 模板。
Get the trade-ready strategy templates
Three concrete A/B/C strategies with entry, hold, and stop parameters.
Free account · No credit card · Built from 25,000+ STOCK Act disclosures
The Filing Delay Reality Check
The STOCK Act gives politicians 45 days to disclose. Only 4.7% file within 7 days. By the time you see most trades, the alpha window is half-spent.
The math: Median filing delay is ~22 days. For a 30-day alpha window post-trade, you capture roughly 8 of 30 days = 27%. For a 90-day window, you capture 68 of 90 = 76%. Long-horizon strategies survive the delay; short-horizon ones don't.
What NOT to Do
Anti-patterns the data clearly disconfirms.
不要跟随 $15k 以下的买入
78.9% 的交易落在此区间——纯粹是托管账户噪音。零 alpha。
不要做空共和党的卖出
共和党 ≥ $50k 的卖出做空 alpha 为负（30 天 −0.25%）。这些是财富管理性的退出，不携带信息含量。
不要买入医疗健康、必需消费、房地产
在所有时间窗口都持续负 alpha。必需消费在 90 天达 −3.51%，最差。即使委员会标记的买入也跑输 SPY。
不要单凭委员会标记下注
整体委员会买入 alpha 为负（−0.25%）。信号只有在 $150k+ 的高信念阈值才显现。
Methodology
How the numbers were produced.
- Source data
- Capitol Trades scraper, all STOCK Act buy & sell disclosures from 2023年4月 to 2026年4月.
- Universe
- 11,820 buy results + 12,767 sell results across 160+ politicians, with prices fetched from Yahoo Finance.
- Entry
- Open of the next trading day after filing date — not trade date — to model what a copy-trader could realistically achieve.
- Exit / hold periods
- Computed at 7, 14, 21, 30, 45, 60, 90 calendar-day marks using closing prices.
- Alpha
- Stock return minus SPY return over the identical calendar window.
- Sharpe
- Annualised:
(α / σ_α) × √(252 / hold). Risk-free rate 5%, capped at ±10 to prevent division-by-tiny artifacts.
Apply this on the live trades feed
Filter the politician trades feed by Senate · Democrat · ≥ $50k. Set alerts on the politicians named here. Watch the next qualifying signal in real time.